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Fred Schwed's Where are the Customer's Yachts?

Description.

According to an old joke, a visitor to New York who was admiring the yachts of the bankers and brokers naively asked where all the customers' yachts were. Of course, none of the customers could afford yachts, even though they dutifully followed the advice of their bankers and brokers. The customers had not got rich from the stock market. Although Fred Schwed had a deep understanding of and few illusions about the world of investment Where are the Customers' Yachts? is very far from cynical. Schwed's insight into the psychology of investment professionals and their customers is as relevant today as it was in 1940. He did not say that investment is pointless, or that private investors never make any money. Rather, he cast doubt on the ability of the financial services industry to provide any really valuable advice to its customers. Leo Gough's interpretation of Where are the Customers' Yachts? brings Schwed's insights to life with modern examples. Readers will discover: • How to spend their income, not their capital; • That just because someone works in the stock market doesn't mean they are a good investor; • Why exceptions are the rule; • How to ride the winner and avoid the collapses; • The secret of the 'fat, stupid peasant' approach. Gough explains why investment is ultimately about psychology rather than numbers. This lucid, concise and jargon-free book shows you how you can adopt Schwed's original techniques and become a real investment ace. This interpretation of Fred Schwed's Where are the Customers' Yachts? illustrates the timeless nature of Schwed's insights by placing them in a twenty-first century context and is an inspiring reworking of one of the most influential investment books ever written.

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• Release date: July 1, 2011

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• ISBN: 9781908189608
• File size: 688 KB

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Business Finance Nonfiction

Publisher: Infinite Ideas Ltd

Kindle Book Release date: July 1, 2011

OverDrive Read ISBN: 9781908189608 Release date: July 1, 2011

EPUB ebook ISBN: 9781908189608 File size: 688 KB Release date: July 1, 2011

• Leo Gough - Author
• Formats Kindle Book OverDrive Read EPUB ebook
• Languages English

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Where Are the Customers' Yachts?

Or a good hard look at wall street.

Schwed, Fred / Zweig, Jason

Wiley Investment Classic Series

1. Edition February 2006 208 Pages, Softcover General Reading

ISBN: 978-0-471-77089-3 John Wiley & Sons

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Short Description

Where Are the Customers' Yachts? exposes the folly and hypocrisy of Wall Street in a humorous and entertaining manner. The title refers to a story about a visitor to New York who admired the yachts of the bankers and brokers in New York Harbor. Naively, he asked where all the customers' yachts were? Of course, none of the customers could afford yachts--even though they dutifully followed the advice of their bankers and brokers. With the same caustic humor, this revered investing classic--based on Fred Schwed's own experiences on Wall Street--offers wise contrarian advice and a true look at the reality of the world of investing, in which brokers get rich while their customers go broke. Even decades after its original publication, this book continues to open the eyes of investors to the reality of Wall Street.

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"Once I picked it up I did not put it down until I finished. . . . What Schwed has done is capture fully-in deceptively clean language-the lunacy at the heart of the investment business." -From the Foreword by Michael Lewis, Bestselling author of Liar's Poker ". . . one of the funniest books ever written about Wall Street." -Jane Bryant Quinn, The Washington Post "How great to have a reissue of a hilarious classic that proves the more things change the more they stay the same. Only the names have been changed to protect the innocent." -Michael Bloomberg "It's amazing how well Schwed's book is holding up after fifty-five years. About the only thing that's changed on Wall Street is that computers have replaced pencils and graph paper. Otherwise, the basics are the same. The investor's need to believe somebody is matched by the financial advisor's need to make a nice living. If one of them has to be disappointed, it's bound to be the former." -John Rothchild, Author, A Fool and His Money, Financial Columnist, Time magazine

©2024 Wiley-VCH GmbH - Provider - www.wiley-vch.de - [email protected] - Data Policy - Cookie Preferences Copyright © 2000-2024 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., or related companies. All rights reserved.

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Where are the customers' yachts.

- By Kyle Ferguson

Earlier this year, I attended my first Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK-A )( BRK-B ) meeting that was held in Omaha. During the meeting, Warren Buffett ( Trades , Portfolio ) described a book, which he claimed that he read back in 1940 when he was 10 years old, called " Where are the Customers' Yachts?" or "A Good Hard Look at Wall Street."

Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with GEOS. Click here to check it out.

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The book is a fairly fast read at 170 pages. The book was originally published in 1940. It is interesting to note that certain human behavioral tendencies remain the same some 76 years after the book was originally published. It is also clear that our stock analysis through modern information and technolgy has evolved 10-fold compared to the information that was being used nearly eight decades ago.

A Little Aptitude Test

The author, Fred Schwed Jr., challenges the reader early on in the book to answer six questions to determine whether or not they could handle a career on Wall Street.

Do you perceive quite clearly what is the objection to playing a roulette wheel that has two zeros on it? (If not, don't bother to be a financier; be a roulette player.)

If a man has tossed a coin "heads" four times in succession, which do you think he is more likely to toss the fifth time, heads or tails? (If you think he is more likely to toss either heads or tails, look into the interior-decorating game. You have that instinctive type of mentality which might do very well at that.)

When do you consider that it is a good purchase to draw one card to an inside straight? (Answer when you are playing for soybeans.)

If you have answered (3) correctly, do you find that when you are actually playing poker for money, you can always resist making that draw? (If not, stay home with your money and start practicing being a miser.)

If a stock which is not paying any dividend is split two for one, how much good does that do the stockholder? (If you think it does him any real good come down and join our sales department, but steer clear of our trading department.)

What is the primary purpose of a business enterprise? This question is specifically for young men considering entering the banking field, where they will have a constant parade of business propositions passing before them, and they will be required to plump for a few of them and say "no" to the others. The answer is elementary and obvious: the primary purpose of a business is to make money.

I believe that these are very good questions. You should never be gambling on roulette unless you know that your odds of hitting red or black are 47.4%, not 50/50. Casino games, in general, have a negative expected value, and should only be played for entertainment purposes with the expectation of losing money.

If a man has tossed heads four times in a row, that does not make it any more or less likely that heads will fall again, but we will get to that later. With regards to questions 3 and 4, as I stated in an earlier article , gurus Bill Gates ( Trades , Portfolio) and Carl Icahn (Trades, Portfolio) honed their instincts, as well as their ability to think rationally, through the game of poker. It is no surprise to me that Schwed would connect poker to Wall Street. I believe that emotional intelligence, and not being results oriented, should also be on Jason Schwed's list of questions because sometimes things can happen in the stock market that are outside of our control.

Stop Making Your Own Mistakes

Schwed discusses using an investment trust for investing because the average investor has no excuses except for purchasing investment-trust shares. During the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting that commenced in late April, Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) said he recommended that investors purchase stock in the Standard & Poor 500, and hold onto it for the long term. In fact, Buffett made a $1 million wager against Prot?g? Partners in 2008 stating that the specialized asset management firm would be unable to outperform the Standard & Poor 500 over a period of 10 years. You can read more about the wager here.

Hire People That Are Experts in Their Industry

Schwed uses the analogy of investing as an amateur compared to hiring a golf expert to make your shots for you.

"The question may be put this way, using golf again: if it was very important to you to win the class B championship at your country club and the rules permitted you to hire Gene Sarazen, at a reasonable fee, to make the shots for you, wouldn't you be an egotistical fool to insist on playing the shots yourself?"

If you don't have the time to commit to investing full time, then it makes a lot more sense to hire an expert or follow gurus' trades to ensure that you have the best possible chance of making profits.

The Trouble With Selecting the 'Best Securities'

Schwed talks about the irrational thought of "the trouble with the best securities" that took place from the 1920's to the time that the book was written in 1940. The definition of "best stocks" has changed dramatically in the 76 years that have passed since the book was originally written.

Schwed describes the idea of "best stocks" in the book.

"Those classes of investments considered "best" change from period to period. The pathetic fallacy is that what are thought to be the best are in truth only the most popular -- the most active, the most talked of, the most boosted, and consequently, the highest in price at that time. It is very much a matter of fashion, like Eugenie hats or waxed mustaches."

Schwed then goes on to say,

"A more sober demonstration of the same sort appeared in a brochure issued in 1937. In this calculation, the twenty most popular stocks and bonds on the Stock Exchange are selected at four different periods between 1901 and 1926. The selection of the most popular was made on each occasion by choosing those in which the largest volume of trading occurred in that year. Their cost at that time was figured and compared with their value at the end of 1936. The results were extremely poor, and now three years later, it just so happens that they are a good deal poorer."

At the time the book was written, there wasn't the same modern day information that we have available today. During the 1920's-1930's, many people irrationally believed that the best stocks were the ones that were the most talked about and the most expensive. These thoughts occurred before a lot of modern day ratios were invented. A time before modern technology had evolved, and before financial ratings such as the Piotroski F-Score, the Altman Z-Score, and the Beneish M-Score were all invented. These scores and rating give modern day investors a much bigger advantage, which allows them to use rational thought, as well as statistical analysis on their investments that enable them to make the "best" most calculated decisions. Instead of irrationally believing that a company is the "best" because it is trading at a high in price or because it is the most talked about security.

A Brief Excursion Into Probabilities

Schwed talks about a large number of people set to play a game of pure chance against each other.

"Let us have 400,000 men (and women) engage in this contest at one time. (Something like the number in this country who try being speculators.) We line them up, facing each other in pairs, across a refectory table miles long. Each player is going to play the person facing him a series of games, the game chosen being a matter of pure luck, say matching coins. Two hundred thousand on one side of the table face 200,000 on the other side. If the reader is at all mathematically inclined he should cease reading and work out for himself what is now bound to occur. Otherwise: The referee gives a signal for the first game and 400,000 coins flash in the sun as they are tossed. The scorers make their tabulations, and discover that 200,000 people are winners and 200,000 are losers. Then the second game is played. Of the original 200,000 winners, about half of them win again. We now have about 100,000 who have won two games and an equal number who have been so unfortunate as to lose both games. The rest have so far broken even. The simplest thing from now on is to keep our eyes on the winners. (No one is ever much interested in the losers, anyway) The third game is played, and of the 100,000 who have won both games half of them are again successful. These 50,000, in the fourth game, are reduced to 25,000, and in the fifth to 12,500. These 12,500 have won five straight without a loss and are no doubt beginning to fancy themselves as coin flippers. They feel they have an "Instinct" for it. However, in the sixth game, 6250 play on and are successively reduced in number until less than a thousand are left. This little band has won some nine straight without a loss, and by this time most of them have at least a local reputation for their ability. People come from some distance to consult them about their method of calling heads and tails, and they modestly give explanations of how they have achieved their success. Eventually there are about a dozen men who have won every single time for about fifteen games. These are regarded as the experts, the greatest coin flippers in history, the men who never lose, and they have their biographies written."

I have been studying Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) for more than 5 years now. After I read Where are the Customers' Yachts?" I remembered that Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) had his own version of a coin flipping story that can be read here.

This is another example of success leaving clues. Buffett had the opportunity to learn from someone else's mental model, and he was able to erase the same irrational thoughts from his mind, enabling him to teach others to think rationally through his own version of the story.

Believing that flipping coins is an actual skill could be added to Charlie Munger (Trades, Portfolio)'s 24 laws of human misjudgements.

I thought that "Where Are The Customers Yachts?" was a good book, and I believe that it was a great help in Buffett's ability to think rationally starting at the age of 10. The book is filled with wisdom, has some comedic value and I understand why it is one of Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio)'s all time favorite books.

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus .

Fred Schwed's Where are the Customer's Yachts?: A modern-day interpretation of an investment classic

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About the author

Leo Gough is an experienced investment writer, a financial journalist and a dedicated private investor. He is the author of several books, including The Financial Times Guide to Business Numeracy, How the Stock Market Really Works, Going Offshore and Asia Meltdown. He is also the UK editor of Taipan, a newsletter on direct equity investment in emerging markets.

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A Wealth of Common Sense

10 Great Lines From ‘Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?’

Posted February 15, 2015 by Ben Carlson

Where Are the Customers’ Yachts by Fred Schwed was written almost 75 years ago. I only read this book for the first time a few months ago and it’s remarkable how well it still holds up after all these years. It’s probably the funniest investment book I’ve ever read (out of an admittedly small set of competitors).

Here are some of my favorite lines:

1. On using statistics to your advantage:  “One can’t say that figures lie. But figures as used in financial arguments, seem to have the bad habit of expressing a small part of the truth forcibly, and neglecting the other part, as do some people we know.”

2. On the value of “I don’t know”:  For one thing, customers have an unfortunate habit of asking about the financial future. Now, if you do someone the single honor of asking him a difficult question, you may be assured that you will get a detailed answer. Rarely will it be the most difficult of all answers – “I don’t know.”

3. On the cyclical nature of the markets:  “When “conditions” are good, the forward looking investor buys. But when “conditions” are good, stocks are high. Then without anyone having the courtesy to ring a bell, “conditions” get bad.”

4. On the usefulness of theories:  “All of these theories are true part of the time; none of them true all of the time. They are, therefore, dangerous, though sometimes useful.”

5. It’s a little different every time: “History does in a vague way repeat itself, but it does it slowly and ponderously, and with an infinite number of surprising variations.

6. On the emotions of losing money:  “Like all of life’s rich emotional experiences, the full flavor of losing important money cannot be conveyed by literature. You cannot convey to an inexperienced girl what it is truly like to be a wife and mother. There are certain things that cannot be adequately explained to a virgin by words or pictures.”

7. On second-level thinking: “Those classes of investments considered “best” change from period to period. The pathetic fallacy is that what are thought to be the best are in truth only the most popular – the most active, the most talked of, the most boosted, and consequently, the highest in price at that time.”

8. On leverage: “A man who borrows money to buy a common stock has no right to think of himself as a constructive social benefactor. His is just another fellow trying to be smart, or lucky, or both.”

9. On short sellers before the Great Depression:  “Before October 1929, nobody objected to short sellers except their families. The families objected to going bankrupt.”

10. On who’s to blame for poor advice:  “The burnt customer certainly prefers to believe that he has been robbed rather than that he has been a fool on the advice of fools.”

Source: Where Are the Customers’ Yachts

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A Wealth of Common Sense is a blog that focuses on wealth management, investments, financial markets and investor psychology. I manage portfolios for institutions and individuals at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC . More about me here .  For disclosure information please see here . 

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Where are the customers' yachts

By fred schwed.

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Book Summary of Where are the Customers’ Yachts

Key takeaways and quotes from a classic book on markets and the investment business.

Where are the Customers’ Yachts was written in 1940 by Fred Schwed, an investment professional. It’s one of my favorite books on markets and I’m sure it will still be timeless 80 years from now.

The origin of the title:

Here are my takeaways from the book plus some great quotes:

• Making money is different than sounding smart. “I don’t know” is the most difficult answer – but usually the correct one. Some financial professionals have invented a new language for saying nothing in a variety of ways.

• Knowing a problem doesn’t mean you know the solution. For example, some Canadian pension funds are leveraging their portfolios because low expected returns raise the likelihood of future deficits. They identified a problem – but I’m not confident the solution is to lever up ten years into an economic expansion with high valuations and low yields.

• The biggest problem for most investors is their own emotions. This is a trope in financial writing – but it’s so true. If you constantly jump between different strategies you’ll look up at 65 and have little to show for all your years of saving. The best portfolio is the one you’ll actually stick with.
• Safe investments can fall out of fashion. Canal bonds were considered safe until railroads upended the canal industry. Russian government bonds were staples of European investment portfolios until the 1917 revolution wiped out their value.

• The truth about most investors. Most  investors don’t admit they are expert rationalizers in finding profound reasons for hunches. “The inability to grasp ultimate  realities is the outstanding mental deficiency of the speculator.” Some investors would rather go broke than admit their guess was wrong.

• The ability to sit still is a superpower. Most people “suffer from the inability to do nothing.” Some investors want to own as many securities as possible. Occasionally I get asked why I don’t make satellite allocations to assets like REITs or gold. I wrote a post showing why. A 5% tilt might make an investor feel diversified but it doesn’t impact portfolio performance.

The book is a rare combination of wisdom and wit – I highly recommend it. You can find used copies on Amazon for $5.

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Fred Schwed: Where are the Customers Yachts? Summary

Post by captmorgan50 » Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:03 am

Re: Fred Schwed Where are the Customers Yachts? Summary

Post by captmorgan50 » Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:04 am

Post by David Jay » Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:12 am

Post by David Jay » Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:19 am

Post by er999 » Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:37 am

Post by captmorgan50 » Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:40 am

Post by Carol88888 » Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:11 am

Post by captmorgan50 » Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:24 pm

Post by Bill Bernstein » Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:57 pm

Post by captmorgan50 » Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:43 pm

Bill Bernstein wrote: ↑ Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:57 pm Not to steal the OP's thunder, but here's my fave: In 1929 there was a luxurious club car which ran each week-day morning into the Pennsylvania Station. When the train stopped, the assorted millionaires who had been playing bridge, reading the paper, and comparing their fortunes, filed out of the front end of the car. Near the door there was placed a silver bowl with a quantity of nickels in it. Those who needed a nickel in change for the subway ride downtown took one. They were not expected to put anything back in exchange; this was not money – it was one of those minor conveniences like a quill toothpick for which nothing is charged. It was only five cents. There have been many explanations of the sudden debacle of October, 1929. The explanation I prefer is that the eye of Jehovah, a wrathful god, happened to chance in October on that bowl. In sudden understandable annoyance, Jehovah kicked over the financial structure of the United States, and thus saw to it that the bowl of free nickels disappeared forever.

Post by Harmanic » Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:56 pm

captmorgan50 wrote: ↑ Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:03 am • Rarely will it be the most difficult of all answers---“I don’t know.”

Post by Bill Bernstein » Tue Mar 21, 2023 12:10 am

Post by captmorgan50 » Tue Mar 21, 2023 1:48 am

Bill Bernstein wrote: ↑ Tue Mar 21, 2023 12:10 am Thanks for the kind words. I assume you're referring to VDE/VENAX having near zero foreign holdings. I guess I'm fine with that, I'm not willing to pay 30 more bp to get the foreign exposure from say, IXC.

Re: Fred Schwed: Where are the Customers Yachts? Summary

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Mar 21, 2023 1:49 am

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Where Are the Customers' Yachts?: : A Good Hard Look at Wall Street Kindle Edition

It's amazing how well Schwed's book is holding up after fifty-five years. About the only thing that's changed on Wall Street is that computers have replaced pencils and graph paper. Otherwise, the basics are the same. The investor's need to believe somebody is matched by the financial advisor's need to make a nice living. If one of them has to be disappointed, it's bound to be the former." -- John Rothchild, Author, A Fool and His Money, Financial Columnist, Time magazine

Humorous and entertaining, this book exposes the folly and hypocrisy of Wall Street. The title refers to a story about a visitor to New York who admired the yachts of the bankers and brokers. Naively, he asked where all the customers' yachts were? Of course, none of the customers could afford yachts, even though they dutifully followed the advice of their bankers and brokers. Full of wise contrarian advice and offering a true look at the world of investing, in which brokers get rich while their customers go broke, this book continues to open the eyes of investors to the reality of Wall Street.

• Print length 208 pages
• Language English
• Sticky notes On Kindle Scribe
• Publication date October 10, 2022
• File size 14459 KB
• Page Flip Enabled
• Word Wise Not Enabled
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• ASIN ‏ : ‎ B0BHW54PXF
• Publisher ‏ : ‎ Wiley. (October 10, 2022)
• Publication date ‏ : ‎ October 10, 2022
• Language ‏ : ‎ English
• File size ‏ : ‎ 14459 KB
• Simultaneous device usage ‏ : ‎ Unlimited
• Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
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• Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
• X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled
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• Sticky notes ‏ : ‎ On Kindle Scribe
• Print length ‏ : ‎ 208 pages
• #2,228 in Stock Market Investing (Kindle Store)
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